A teoria dos jogos e as negociações da ALCA
Abstract
Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar o histórico das negociações para a formação da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas – ALCA, levando-se em conta a abordagem da teoria dos jogos. Busca-se apontar os erros e acertos das decisões tomadas, principalmente pelo Brasil, além de identificar as estratégias adotadas para cada um dos jogadores (ou grupo deles) a fim de antecipar futuras decisões e caminhos a serem seguidos. Em suma, tentar-se-á aplicar a teoria dos jogos ao caso da ALCA com vista a responder determinadas perguntas, tais como: o Brasil adotou a estratégia correta? Quais concessões podemos ou devemos tomar e quais podemos ou devemos demandar? Como solucionar impasses e avançar no jogo? O Brasil tem chance de obter êxito nas negociações? Há um equilíbrio possível?
Palavras-chave – Relações internacionais. Teoria dos jogos. Estratégia. Negociação. ALCA.
Abstract
This paper analyses the history of negotiations leading to the formation of FTAA – Free Trade Area of Americas, taking into account the game theory approach. It will point out the rights and mistakes of decisions, mainly those took by Brazilian decisions makers. It also identifies the strategies taken by each of the players (or group of them) in order to anticipate further decisions and ways to be pursued. To summarize, we intend to apply the Game Theory to FTAA case in order to answer certain questions, such as: Did Brazil adopt the right strategy? Which concession could/must we give up and which could/must we ask for? How to solve impasses and to advance in the game? Has Brazil any chance of success in the negotiations? Is there a possible equilibrium?
Key words – International relations. Game theory. Strategy. Negotiation. FTAA.
Jel Classification – F1 Trade. F13 Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations; International Organizations.
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