Equações de oferta e demanda por exportações do setor de calçados, 1985/2003
Abstract
Este trabalho estima as equações de oferta e de demanda por exportações de calçados brasileiros, entre o primeiro trimestre de 1985 e o primeiro trimestre de 2003, a partir da metodologia de Johansen (1988) para co-integração. Na equação de oferta, observa-se que a maior parte de um choque cambial impacta o quantum exportado no longo prazo, verificando-se a ocorrência do efeito J. Da mesma forma, os impactos de variações nos preços ocorrem no longo prazo. Para a equação de demanda, verifica-se que a elasticidade-preço é negativa, concentrando seus efeitos no curto prazo, evidenciando o fato de que o calçado brasileiro é um bem normal para o consumidor americano. Por fim, a elasticidade-renda estimada é positiva, com seu ajuste ocorrendo no curto prazo.
Palavras-chave: Raiz unitária. Co-integração. Equação de oferta e de demanda.
Abstract This paper estimates supply and demand equations of brazilian footwear, from the first quarter of 1985 untill the first quarter of 2003 through Johansen’s methodology (1988) of cointegration. In the supply equation, it is possible to find out that the greatest part of an exchange rate shock alters the quantum exported in the long term, verifying the J-Curve. Additionally, prices variation impacts also ocurr in the long term. Regarding the demand equation, price elasticity is negative, concentrating its effects in the short term, making evident the fact that brazilian footwear is a normal good to american consumer. Finally, the estimated income elasticity is positive, with the adjustment ocurring in the short term.
Key words: Unit root. Cointegration. Supply and demand fonctions.
JEL classification: C22, Time-series models. F14, Country and industry studies of trade.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
COPYRIGHT
The submission of originals to Análise implies the transfer by the authors of the right for publication. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication. If the authors wish to include the same data into another publication, they must cite Análise as the site of original publication.
CREATIVE COMMONS LICENSE
As this journal is open access, the articles are allowed free use in scientific and educational applications, with citation of the source.
According to the type of Creative Commons License (CC-BY 4.0) adopted by Análise, the user must respect the requirements below.
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
However, only under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests Análise endorses you or your use.
No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation.
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
For more details on the Creative Commons license, please follow the link in the footer of this website.
