Despesas de pessoal versus despesas totais: o caso do Estado de Santa Catarina
Abstract
No presente trabalho, testa-se econometricamente, via técnicas de co-integração e de causalidade de Granger, a relação entre os gastos orçamentários totais e as despesas de pessoal do Estado de Santa Catarina no período de 1950 a 2002. O teste de co-integração mostra-se estatisticamente significante, corroborando uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre as séries. Além disso, o teste de causalidade, no sentido de Granger, não rejeita a hipótese de ausência de causalidade entre as séries de despesa de pessoal e de despesa orçamentária. Mais especificamente, pelo teste, as despesas de pessoal causam, no sentido de Granger, as despesas orçamentárias, conforme se supõe na literatura sobre o assunto. O aumento das despesas totais pode também estar ligado ao próprio desenvolvimento socioeconômico do Estado, que demanda maiores gastos públicos, como prevê a lei de Wagner.
Palavras-chave: Despesas com pessoal. Despesas orçamentárias. Estado de Santa Catarina. Lei de Wagner.
Abstract
In this work, we use the econometric techniques of cointegration and of Granger causality in order to test the relationship between total budget expenditures and the Santa Catarina state wage bill in the period 1950 to 2002. The co-integration test comes out significant, showing a long run equilibrium relationship between the two series. Granger’s causality test does not reject the hypothesis of noncausality between the wage bill and total budget expenditures. More to the point, the test shows that the public wage bill causes, in a Granger’s sense, the total budget expenditure, as supposed in the literature. The increase in total expenditures may also be related to the socio-economic development of the state, with is consequent greater requirements in public expenditures, as predicted by Wagner’s Law.
Key words: Public wage bill. Budget expenditures. Santa Catarina State. Wagner’s Law.
JEL Classification: H5 – National government expenditures and related policies. H72 – State and local budget and expenditures.
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