Reavaliando os objetivos e os resultados do Plano Real
Abstract
O presente artigo compara as propostas do Plano Real com os resultados obtidos nos onze anos de sua vigência. As trajetórias seguidas e suas alternativas, os efeitos das crises e o papel do Estado são aqui retratados. Para tanto, efetuou-se, primeiramente, a revisão da bibliografia existente sobre cada um dos autores do plano, para serem avaliados, posteriormente, os pressupostos teóricos que levaram à sua criação; finalmente, com base nesse arcabouço teórico, em consonância com a análise de determinadas variáveis econômicas, concluiu-se que os aumentos de produtividade conquistados no período não se reverteram em elevação dos níveis salariais e do emprego. Ademais, o crescimento não vem se traduzindo em desenvolvimento e resultados positivos só foram obtidos a custa de recessão, os quais podem ser conferidos mais à microeconomia do que à macroeconomia.
Palavras-chave: Brasil. Plano Real. Planos de estabilização. Crise.
Abstract
This paper aims to contrast the objectives set out by the Real Plan at its implementation with the results achieved eleven years later. It reports on the trajectories of the plan and its alternatives, the impact of successive economic crises, and the role of the State. The paper starts with a review of the literature on each of the plan creators, followed by analysis of the plan theoretical framework, and finishing with a contrast of this framework against some specific economic variables to elaborate on the paper objectives. The analysis suggests that the gains in productivity achieved in the period since the plan implementation have not translated into increased wage and employment. Besides, the economic growth that followed did not lead to improved socio-economic development. Positive results have been increasingly obtained at the price of economic recession, and more due microeconomic rather than macroeconomic factors.
Key words: Brazil. Real Plan. Crisis.
JEL Classification: E31 – Price Level. Inflation. Deflation.
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