India and Pakistan
prospects for the future of south Asia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15448/2178-5694.2026.1.48470Keywords:
Kashmir, Regional Security Complex Theory, nuclear conflict, scenario analysis.Abstract
This article investigates the dynamics of the conflict between India and Pakistan in light of the Regional Security Complex Theory and seeks to understand whether the current scenario indicates stagnation or escalation. To this end, a historical and situational analysis is conducted, and political, social, and economic uncertainties are identified, discussed using the bibliographic review methodology. Considering the historical context of the conflict and the severe losses that a high-intensity confrontation would bring to the countries involved and to international stability, it is concluded that stagnation is the most likely scenario, though marked by periods of heightened tension.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Bruna Maier, Carina Vieira Uliana, Isadora Roxo Lima Ribeiro
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